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    • Home
    • CurveAlpha's Mission
    • Why Value E&P w Options?
    • E&P This Week
    • 2025 Valuation Surprises
    • Why Add Valuation Metric?
    • Why Price E&P Asymmetry?
    • M&A Insights
    • What's CurveAlpha's Edge?
    • Big Dollars at Stake
    • E&P Group Think?
    • Underperforming O&G?
    • CA's Product Offerings
    • Volatility Boot Camp ?
    • Quotes
    • Improve Well Data Insight
    • Thought Provoking
    • Management
    • Social Media
    • Contact CurveAlpha
  • Home
  • CurveAlpha's Mission
  • Why Value E&P w Options?
  • E&P This Week
  • 2025 Valuation Surprises
  • Why Add Valuation Metric?
  • Why Price E&P Asymmetry?
  • M&A Insights
  • What's CurveAlpha's Edge?
  • Big Dollars at Stake
  • E&P Group Think?
  • Underperforming O&G?
  • CA's Product Offerings
  • Volatility Boot Camp ?
  • Quotes
  • Improve Well Data Insight
  • Thought Provoking
  • Management
  • Social Media
  • Contact CurveAlpha
CurveAlpha. Volatility Adjusted E&P Valuation

Volatility Adjusted E&P Valuation. Same Data, Different Insights

Volatility Adjusted E&P Valuation. Same Data, Different InsightsVolatility Adjusted E&P Valuation. Same Data, Different InsightsVolatility Adjusted E&P Valuation. Same Data, Different InsightsVolatility Adjusted E&P Valuation. Same Data, Different InsightsVolatility Adjusted E&P Valuation. Same Data, Different Insights

M&A Insights. Why is "Good E&P M&A" so Hard?

Many "must do" M&A Transactions struggle to outperform the underlying O&G Strip (3Y), XOP and or SPY



  • Turning non-linear well data, reserve estimates & cashflow sensitivity into static metrics like DCF,  EV/EBITDA or FCF Yield can easily lead to valuation error
  • If analyzing Well Data is a matter of statistical probability, shouldn't the E&P Valuation follow suit?
  • The correlation between "Good M&A" and accurately pricing O&G Volatility is extremely high

M&A Insights. What to Pay? When to Pay? How to Pay?

In 70% of M&A either the Buyer or Seller Significantly Misprices the Assumed Oil & Gas Volatility Exposure




  • Mispricing the O&G Volatility Exposure can be worth Billions
  • The Price Paid for The O&G Volatility Wager is often worth > than the change in the O&G Price

M&A Insights. What to Pay? When to Pay? How to Pay?

CA's Equal Weight Mid Cap Index has Underperformed the WTI Strip (3Y) by approx. 20% since H1 2024


Our Options Based E&P Valuation Analysis flagged the high probability of this happening in Q1 2024


The MidCap "Options to Drill", were significantly overpriced given the Oil Volatility Exposure & Complexity. Especially so vs Large Cap


Lots of M&A Deals were done in H1 2024 because they were accretive on a Per Share basis


  • Most Deals were Not Acrretive from a Volatility Pricing Perspective
  • MidCap is now 20% cheaper vs the Oil Curve. Is it cheap enough now?
  • How to improve: What to Pay & When Pay or How to Pay? 

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